Data DNA - What Championship Coaches Are Made Of
- Tanner Stump
- Jan 19
- 5 min read
On Monday, January 19th at 7:30pmEST, Miami and Indiana will compete in one of the most broadcast sports events of the year, the CFP National Championship.
With head-turning storylines like the rise of the new household name, Curt Cignetti, and the stabilizing of college football in the aftermath of the transfer portal, it’s daunting to wade through saturated narratives for credible, data-driven information. One of the biggest threads binding these two teams was their ability to keep their coaching staffs in-tact at HC, OC, and DC when many others were disassembled for better offers. This coaching consistency allows for building momentum, but it came at a price and not without tempting outside offers. Shannon Dawson (Miami) was rumored to have been courted by other prospects & Bryant Haines & Mike Shanahan (Indiana) re-signed with with the Hoosiers during this season.
At AD Vantage, we’re here to give you the bottom line — to share what the data says about each team’s coaching backbone and how the two championship hopefuls stack up as they thunder through the tunnels of Hard Rock Stadium.
The Methodology
Using AD Vantage, our team pulled Offensive and Defensive Coordinators performance insights for both National Championship contenders.
Through this data analysis, we’ll provide insights that go beyond Cignetti’s self-assessment of his coaching performance, “I win. Google me.,” that cemented his personality in sports’ collective consciousness. We’ll see what Indiana’s Defensive Coordinator, Bryant Haines, & Offensive Coordinator, Mike Shanahan bring to the equation.
We’ll also explore Mario Cristobal’s right and left hand men, OC Shannon Dawson & DC Corey Heatherman, and how to make their mark on both sides of football.
After our in-office coin flip - we’re starting with Indiana’s Offense and Miami’s Defense.
Indiana’s Offensive Performance Metrics
The Man: Mike Shanahan, Indiana’s Offensive Coordinator & Wide Receivers Coach, has the third most efficient offense in the country. This is the second season he accomplished that feat for the Hoosiers. For reference, prior to Shanahan/Cignetti’s arrival, Indiana ranked #72 in 2023 and #88 in 2022. For more on Offensive Coordinators who were difference makers this season, check out our article Quickest Turnarounds: OC Leaderboard; A Data-Driven Analysis.
The Legend: Around the AD Vantage conference room, the team used words like “consistent” and “surgical”, to describe the offense– with quarterback Fernando Mendoza boasting more touchdowns than incompletions during their CFP run. There’s nothing splashy about their offense. It’s steady, accurate, and most drives end in touchdowns– what more can you ask for?
Miami’s Defensive Performance Metrics
The Man: With Hetherman at the helm, Defense Efficiency skyrocketed from 65th to 4th in the league. A dramatic jump like that in his first season with Miami means he’s made a big splash– a splash so big that it rivals Pat McAfee’s cannonball heard round the world on Week 4 of ESPN’s College Gameday in Miami. (Yes, have to see it to believe it. Start the video clip at 2:20 for Pat’s actual jump).
The Legend: Hetherman’s 2025 Miami defense showed a clear identity shift: improved efficiency, better down-to-down consistency, and a significant jump in SP+ defensive rating (from #51 to #6). Giving up big plays remains a risk for Miami, but its defense is much tougher to stay in rhythm against. That puts added pressure on Indiana to win on early downs — a strength of Shanahan’s system.
Who’s Got The Edge? Indiana’s Offense and Miami’s Defense
Indiana’s offense holds a narrow statistical edge because its success is clearly system-driven and sustainable across seasons. Yet Miami’s defensive leap in 2025 shows how quickly strategic coaching decisions can shift the competitive balance. The result is a razor-thin matchup that will turn less on talent and more on discipline, decision-making, and execution on early downs and in the red zone.
Edge: Very slightly Indiana
Games of this magnitude come down to the tiniest of margins. Depth at Cornerback (CB) is a concern for Miami when forcing Indiana into mistakes, which it will have to do if it hopes to stop drives. Miami’s defense will benefit the most from its offensive production. If the Hurricanes can keep scoring, that pressure could force Mendoza into riskier decisions late — something Indiana didn’t face against last week’s opponent.
Miami’s Offensive Performance Metrics
The Man: Shannon Dawson, Miami’s Offensive Coordinator and Quarterbacks Coach, has overseen one of the most analytically impressive turnarounds in the sport. In his second year, Miami climbed all the way to #1 nationally in offensive efficiency, a dramatic leap from a middling #90 ranking just two seasons earlier. Even after a slight regression in 2025, the Hurricanes remained a top-15 unit — evidence that he may not be a one-season wonder.
The Legend: When Miami’s offense is humming, it’s one of the most difficult offenses in the country to defend. At its peak, this unit married elite success rate with top-tier finishing, proving it can dominate both between the 20s and in the red zone. It may not always look pretty, but when it’s clicking, it looks inevitable.
Indiana’s Defensive Performance Metrics
The Man: Bryant Haines, Indiana’s Defensive Coordinator and Linebackers Coach, inherited a unit that had been near the bottom of the Big Ten and quickly transformed it into one of the nation’s best. In just his second season, Indiana vaulted to #2 nationally in defensive efficiency and to #2 of SP+ defense — a remarkable rise from rankings outside the top 90 just three years prior. The speed of that improvement is what has turned heads across the NCAA.
The Legend: If Shanahan’s offense is “steady and surgical,” Haines’ defense is “disciplined and disruptive.” The one lingering question is explosiveness allowed, which spiked in 2025, but the overall profile is clear: it’s a defense that bends far less, finishes far better, and changes how opponents have to play. With Miami’s Offensive Explosiveness lagging at #125 in the rankings, the weak point in Indiana’s Defense may not be an issue.
Who’s Got The Edge? Miami’s Offense and Indiana’s Defense
Miami’s offense is ranked #14 in the country, an interesting “fall from grace” since it occupied the #1 spot last season. They’re capable of moving the chains and finishing drives when they’re rolling, but the data questions their consistency of efficiency. Meanwhile, Indiana’s defense has transformed into a disciplined, disruptive fortification that forces offenses into tough choices and rarely gives ground. This matchup is a clash of consistency (Indiana) versus structure (Miami) that could swing on the smallest mistakes.
Edge: Indiana
In the Quarterfinals, there was so much talk of whether the bye week helped or hurt teams. But, is this the week Indiana reaps the benefits of having had a lot of breathing room to finish games and a week of recovery? Look for Miami to keep pace early, but keep an eye on the battle in the trenches as the game goes on.
How much will homefield advantage help out the Hurricanes? There’s no doubt that the Hoosiers will travel to see the capstone to their undefeated season play out, but we'll see if it’s enough to outweigh the “U” fanatics in their own backyard. Looking at the weather– it will be a cool 50 degrees, not really working in Miami’s favor if they were looking to sweat out Indiana.
The Hoosiers should feel right at home, and unless they let the moment get to them, are off to the races to hoist the trophy.
AD Vantage Point
Coordinators like Shanahan, Hetherman, Dawson, and Haines are showing the kind of system-building that often precedes head coaching opportunities. AD Vantage helps athletic directors spot that potential sooner. By blending staff data, performance analytics, and AI-driven insights, AD Vantage gives leaders a clear view of which rising coaches bring the right philosophy, consistency, and fit — so the next great hire is guided by evidence, not just gut-feeling.
